Index
This topic area covers statistics and information relating to population projections in Hull including local strategic need and service provision. Further information relating to current Population Estimates including Race and Ethnicity are given within Population, and information relating to Housing including household structure is given within Health and Wellbeing Influences.
Population projections are normally released by the Office for National Statistics every two years, but there is a delay following the 2021 Census. ONS ‘back-date’ their recent estimates of the resident population once more accurate Census data becomes available. Their revised estimates as well as the mid-year 2022 resident population estimates were published on the 23 November 2023 at local authority level and were published at lower geographies (e.g. wards) on the 25 November 2024. These releases have delayed the release of population projections. The national population projections based on mid-year 2021 population estimates were released on the 30 January 2024, and more recent population projections based on mid-year 2022 population estimates were released on the 28 January 2025 . However, no population projections at local authority level or other subnational geographical levels have been released since the population projections based on mid-year 2018 population estimates. Subnational population projections based on mid-year 2022 population estimates are due to be released on the 9 May 2025.
Headlines
- It is essential for planning to understand the current population and future population numbers. This is not only in planning health care for older people which we know are projected to increase over time, but also for planning for other health needs associated with infants, children, maternity services, etc. as well as broader needs such as those associated with pre-school, education, employment and housing.
- The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce population projections every two years with the latest based on the mid-year population estimates for 2018. No new updates are available because new population estimates and other information from the 2021 Census are currently being processed by ONS Census. The next population projections at local authority level are due to be published until May 2025.
- Based on the mid-year 2018 population projections, it was projected that Hull’s population would increase very slightly from 260,600 in 2018 to 261,000 by 2028 (an increase of 0.15%), and to 262,100 by 2035 (an increase of 0.57%).
- This masked substantial differences across the age groups. It was projected that the number of people aged 0-9, 25-34 and 45-59 would decline in Hull between 2018 and 2028 with increases for all other age groups particularly among those aged 75-79 years where there would be an increase of around 30% (due to the post-World War II baby boom).
- However, based on mid-year 2018 population projections for Hull, it was estimated that the population in 2023 would be around 261,000. However, the mid-year 2023 population estimates for Hull are 271,942 which is 4.2% higher than the population projections.
- Rising numbers of elderly and very elderly people will mean rising demand for a wide range of services which meet their needs. Not only are people living longer on average, but elderly people are living with an increasing number of chronic diseases which have implications for their health and care needs.
The Population Affected – Why Is It Important?
People at different ages and stages of their lives have different health needs. Thus in order to improve health and wellbeing, and reduce inequalities of the people living in Hull, it is essential to understand the population to determine current and future health needs so planning can take into account differences and changes over time. Those in the oldest age groups have the greatest health need and it is these age groups where it is projected that the largest relative increases will occur in the population due to advances in health care and people living longer.
The Hull Picture
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce population projections every two years with the latest based on the mid-year population estimates for 2018. No new updates are available at subnational level until May 2025.
Based on the latest mid-year 2018 population projections for Hull, it was estimated that the population in 2023 would be 261,000. However, the mid-year 2023 population estimates are 271,942 for Hull, which is 4.2% higher than the population projections.
As it has been a long time since population projections have been produced at local authority level, some information has been included here relating to population projections for England. However, it may not necessarily follow that changes in England will apply to Hull.
Population Projections for England
Based on the national population projections for England (mid-year 2022 based), it is estimated that the population in England will increase by 1.4%, 1.1%, 1.0%, 0.8% and 0.7% between the start and end of 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027 respectively, then the Office for National Statistics estimate the population will increase by between 0.4% and 0.5% each year over the subsequent decade or so, with the rate of increase reducing each year from 0.53% for 2028 to 0.40% for 2040. Whilst there is a natural increase (difference between deaths and births) in the population within their estimates, it is very small (fewer than 40 people pear year), and that the increase will be due to international migration. Their population projections give a population of 57,113 at the start of 2023 increasing to 57,910 at the start of 2024, and increasing to 60,045 in five years (start of 2028), to 60,673 (start of 2030), to 62,137 (start of 2035) and to 63,463 (start of 2040). They estimate that the total fertility rate will be around 1.4 for England over the next couple of decades.
Population Projections for Hull
Based on mid-year 2018 population projections, ONS estimated that there were 260,060 residents in Hull, and they projected that this would increase very slightly to 262,100 by 2028 (an increase of 0.15%) and to 262,100 by 2043 (an increase of 0.57%).
| Age | 2018 | 2023 | 2028 | 2033 | 2038 | 2043 |
| 0-4 | 17,200 | 15,700 | 15,300 | 15,400 | 16,000 | 16,500 |
| 5-9 | 17,200 | 16,400 | 15,000 | 14,600 | 14,800 | 15,300 |
| 10-14 | 14,900 | 16,500 | 15,700 | 14,400 | 14,000 | 14,200 |
| 15-19 | 14,000 | 15,600 | 17,200 | 16,500 | 15,200 | 14,800 |
| 20-24 | 21,800 | 21,100 | 22,900 | 24,800 | 24,000 | 22,300 |
| 25-29 | 23,000 | 23,000 | 18,800 | 20,200 | 21,900 | 21,300 |
| 30-34 | 20,000 | 21,400 | 18,900 | 17,600 | 19,000 | 20,500 |
| 35-39 | 16,900 | 18,200 | 19,300 | 17,300 | 16,100 | 17,300 |
| 40-44 | 14,500 | 15,400 | 16,600 | 17,600 | 15,800 | 14,600 |
| 45-49 | 16,100 | 13,500 | 14,300 | 15,300 | 16,200 | 14,600 |
| 50-54 | 16,800 | 15,300 | 12,800 | 13,600 | 14,600 | 15,400 |
| 55-59 | 16,000 | 16,000 | 14,700 | 12,300 | 13,100 | 14,000 |
| 60-64 | 13,300 | 14,900 | 15,000 | 13,800 | 11,700 | 12,400 |
| 65-69 | 11,700 | 12,100 | 13,700 | 13,800 | 12,800 | 10,800 |
| 70-74 | 10,300 | 10,300 | 10,800 | 12,200 | 12,400 | 11,600 |
| 75-79 | 6,900 | 8,700 | 8,800 | 9,200 | 10,500 | 10,800 |
| 80-84 | 5,400 | 5,200 | 6,700 | 6,800 | 7,200 | 8,400 |
| 85-89 | 3,100 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 4,200 | 4,300 | 4,700 |
| 90+ | 1,500 | 1,400 | 1,500 | 1,600 | 2,100 | 2,300 |
| All | 260,600 | 261,000 | 261,000 | 261,400 | 261,700 | 262,100 |
Over the shorter term to 2028, ONS project a small decrease of 0.15% among the 0-19 year age group, alongside decreases of 2.2% and 7.9% among those aged 20-39 years and 40-59 years respectively, and increases of 14.5% and 14.0% among those aged 60-79 years and 80+ years respectively. These mask relatively large individual changes within five year age groups such as an increases of 22.9%, 14.2%, 14.5%, 12.8%, 17.1%, 27.5% and 24.1% among those aged 15-19, 35-39, 40-44, 60-64, 65-69, 75-79 and 80-84 years respectively, and decreases of 11.0%, 12.8%, 18.3%, 11.2% and 23.8% among those aged 0-4, 5-9, 25-29, 45-49 and 50-54 years respectively.
Over the longer term to 2043, ONS project decreases of 3.9%, 0.4% and 7.6% among those aged 0-19, 20-39 and 40-59 years respectively, and increases of 8.1% and 54.0% among those aged 60-79 and 80+ years respectively.
Among those aged 65+ years, it is projected that Hull’s population will increase by 14.9% by 2028 (from 38,900 in 2018 to 44,700 in 2028) and by 24.9% by 2043 (to 48,600). Among those aged 85+ years, it is projected that the population will increase by 2.2% from 4,600 in 2018 to 4,700 in 2028, but by 52% to 7,000 in 2043.
Strategic Need and Service Provision
Rising numbers of elderly and very elderly people will mean rising demand for a wide range of services which meet the needs of elderly people. Not only are people living longer on average, but elderly people are living with an increasing number of chronic diseases which have implications for their health and care needs. In the absence of other changes, the 25% increase in over 65s in Hull over the next 25 years will mean a similar 25% increase in service demand.
Resources
ONS population projections: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections
Updates
This page was last updated / checked on 31 January 2025.
This page is due to be updated / checked in May 2025.